Friends, Enemies and Geopolitics

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 05:05 PM PDT

National oppression is common to all countries and we cannot expect the dominant Nations of Countries to be our friends. Our strategic long-term natural allies are obviously the oppressed Nations without State and then the oppressed peoples of the World. We have failed to cultivate friendship and solidarity with our Natural Allies while foolishly expecting the oppressors to deliver Liberation to us. We need to give highest priority first for unity among ourselves at least to the level of coordinating action committees for specific objectives and then develop solidarity and friendship with the Nation without State of Tamil Nadu followed by relationship with other Natural Allies, writes TamilNet Economic and Geopolitical Analyst in the Asia Pacific.

TamilNet Economic and Geopolitical Analyst

“We have no permanent friends and we have no permanent enemies but we have permanent interests”, said Sir Winston Churchill. Whatever Churchill might have had in his mind regarding interest, in today’s fast globalizing world, interest can only mean the self interest of Countries, Nations, non government organizations and various alliances. Also there is nothing permanent, stagnant or eternal since the ‘context’ changes continuously and those not adapting to the changing context cannot survive. So the self interests of all the entities change and so are the friends and enemies. This is the dynamics of Geopolitics.

Though the Eelam National Liberation is at its lowest potential, the time spent in reviewing and analyzing our past in the light of the dynamics of Geopolitics is essential to reformulate our strategy and tactics.

We have been pushed back in both phases of non-violent resistance and armed resistance (armed resistance is simply applying Technology to match that of the Enemy).

During the phase of non-violent resistance, we have been cheated by the different governments of Sri Lanka (GoSL) and subjected to both State Terrorism and Sinhala hooliganism while being ignored by the International Community and hence we were not affected significantly by Geopolitics.

Our economy was developed neither by GoSL nor by us and we were dependent on outside the Homeland. Our people who returned to the Homeland during the communal pogroms on a mass scale had no option but to go back to their previous vocations.

The empowerment of agriculture in the Homeland by the import restrictions of the period 1970 to 1977 provided the spirit of self-reliance and the Vaddukkoaddai Declaration was adopted in 1976. The communal policies coupled with liberalization after 1977 in the background of repeated State Terrorism and Sinhala hooliganism resulted first as armed reaction and then developed as armed resistance.

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It was only after the armed resistance, particularly in the context of the July 1983 pogrom, ‘Mother India,’ an ally of then Soviet Union noticed us, as the GoSL was having friendly relationships with the USA and the West who promoted the liberalization policy.

The armed reaction and armed resistance, which took the form of paying back in the same coin, developed into a National Liberation Movement with international exposure. Though it was groping in the dark by trial and error due to lack of ideological foundation, it was a great success in stalemating Genocide by GoSL between 1983 and 2009.

In spite of the lack of ideological foundation and in spite of being cheated by the Indian Establishment since Thimphu talks but because of the dedicated leadership and sacrifices by the people, the Eelam Liberation Movement grew to the extent of administering major part of the Homeland, which was formally recognized by the CFA of 2002.

Though it was admired by its people and praised by many international observers as unparalleled in the World and a stronger match to the GoSL, why and how did the Liberation Movement meet its ‘disaster’ in 2009?

The simple answer is that the International Community cheated the Liberation Movement and that the CFA was a trap. It is common sense that the Liberation Movement is not a match to the combined strength of 30 or more powerful establishments of the World. There was no support to the Liberation Movement outside the Homeland except from the Tamil Diaspora.

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Simple answers will not help in reformulating successful strategy and tactics. Further repeated cheating by ‘Friends’ implies that something is fundamentally wrong. The fundamental mistakes were not understanding and applying Geopolitics as well as misconception about our friends and enemies.

During the phase of the armed resistance of Eelam Liberation itself, there were three epochs in the Geopolitics of the World.

First it was the Politics of the ‘cold war’ between the Soviet bloc and the Western bloc which ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union (it was no accident that killing of Rajiv took place almost at the same time) and then it was the short lived Uni Polar (US) world, dominated by the Globalised Capital, between the two Iraq wars and currently the Multi Polar World dominated by globalised Establishments of the club of UN. Terrorism Phobia and collusion of veto powers are symbolic of the current epoch.

These three epochs in the World order did not make any difference in our thinking.

Our understanding of Friends and Enemies also did not reflect the Historical Reality of National Liberation.

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Nations which were historically and naturally evolved communities of peoples during the rising period of Capitalism (with common territory, common language, common culture and common economy / technology) faced uneven development first due to uneven distribution of resources and subsequently due to the stronger Nations (imperialists) oppressing the weaker Nations forcing them to become suppliers of raw materials and consumers of industrial products of the imperialist powers.

Due to imperialistic design, while there are only 193 countries (including the latest addition of South Sudan) in the club of UN, it is estimated that there are about 6000 Nations without State in the World with nearly 2000 of them in the region of India.

While the identities of this large number may not be clear, at least 230 Nations without State have been well defined and well documented (Prof James Minahan).

Obviously the Liberation of the Nations without State demolishes the foundations of the imperialistic exploitation by the former imperialists of the West as well as by countries like India in particular and even other countries which are exploiting smaller number (one in the case of Sri Lanka) of Nations without State.

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National oppression is common to all countries and we cannot expect the dominant Nations of Countries to be our friends. Our strategic long term natural allies are obviously the oppressed Nations without State and then the oppressed peoples of the World. We have failed to cultivate friendship and solidarity with our Natural Allies while foolishly expecting the oppressors to deliver Liberation to us!

There are internal contradictions of varying extents among the Globalised Establishments and certainly we can play on these contradictions depending on our main enemy at any time provided we are strong and determined as well as having established solidarity with our Natural Allies.

We should also anticipate the development of Geopolitics and establish our relationships to suit that. The Globalised World as a whole is facing both the Environmental crisis and the Economic crisis but the combination of these along with internal contradictions is most likely affect the Region of India in the extreme. The time frame is determined by the cause and effect frame and could be faster than we imagine.

We need to give highest priority first for unity among ourselves at least to the level of coordinating action committees for specific objectives and then develop solidarity and friendship with the Nation without State of Tamil Nadu followed by relationship with other Natural Allies.

While developing the above strategic overall relationships, we should also concentrate on the Reparations to the war victims in the Homeland by the winners local and foreign.

Fortunately the UNSG Panel Report has recommended that and we should give equal if not more importance to Reparation to the victims as to war crimes etc.

Reparations cannot be undertaken without getting rid of the occupation forces and establishing at least a semblance of Normalcy.

Survival of the people in the Homeland is primary for the achievement of the longer-term objectives including the recognition of their Right to Self Determination. We need a wise leadership that will integrate the immediate with the ultimate

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